The Book

Bet play-money coins on how billionaires' stock wealth moves (biggest gainers, move ladders, rank races, dollar duels) and on the fantasy week (head-to-heads, player points, props). Odds come from a simple model of our own data. How odds work · Rules.

Week—

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How odds work

American odds. A minus number is what you stake to win 100: at −110 you stake 110 coins to win 100 (you get 210 back). A plus number is what a 100 stake wins: at +250 a 100-coin stake wins 250 (you get 350 back). Smaller stakes scale the same way. The slip always shows "To win" and the full payout before you bet.

Price markets. Blasts, Ladders and Races follow real stock prices, measured from the opening price to the closing price; betting closes at the opening bell (9:30 AM New York) of the first day measured. Each event shows when it closes. A board ("Biggest % gainer today") pays the person with the biggest move; % boards use each person's holdings basket, $ boards use tracked stock wealth (share counts from SEC filings times the price). A ladder rung like "Up 5% or more" wins if the week's move reaches it (exactly 5% counts). A range pays the band the move lands in. A race asks whether one person's tracked wealth passes another's by Friday's close. A dollar duel pays whoever gains more dollars; "by $39.5B+" needs a win by more than that. A missing price (market holiday or data gap) voids the market and the stake comes back.

Fantasy lines. "O 150.5" means over 150.5 weekly fantasy points; "U" is under. A spread like "−2.5" means that person must beat the other by 3 or more; "+2.5" wins if they lose by 2 or less, or win. Lines end in .5, so there are no pushes. A tie in a head-to-head moneyline is void and the stake comes back.

Parlays. Combine 2 to 4 picks from different events. The odds multiply, and every pick must win. A void pick drops out and the rest still count. The most any bet can pay back is 10,000 coins.

Where the odds come from. Each person's daily fantasy points and price moves are modeled from our own data. The fair chance of each result is then turned into odds.

The house margin. The fair chances add up to 100%, but the prices add up to more: 104.5% on two-way bets, ladder rungs and duel lines (−110 on both sides of a coin flip), 112% on ranges, and 120% on the boards, top scorer and top sector. That margin is how any book works. With play money it just keeps the leaderboard honest.

Stakes and long shots. Stakes are 1 to 500 coins, up to 50 bets a day. Long shots have smaller limits: at most 150 coins when the odds pay 6 times the stake or more (+500 and longer), and at most 50 coins when they pay 21 times or more (+2000 and longer). For a parlay the combined odds count. The slip shows the limit before you bet.

Play money only. Coins have no value. You can't buy, sell, cash out or send them. Fantasy markets lock Monday at 9:30 AM New York time and settle after Friday's scores are in (usually Saturday); price markets settle once the closing prices are in. The odds you see when you place a bet are the odds you get; if they moved, the slip asks you to review. Nothing here is investment advice. Full rules.

Rules for The Book

The Book takes play-money bets on the fantasy week at fixed odds: head-to-head matchups (moneyline and spread), a person's weekly points over or under a line, the week's top scorer, whether someone files an insider buy by Friday, and the top sector.
Odds come from a simple model of our own data (recent news, insider buys and how much each person's holdings usually move) plus a house margin. They are not forecasts or advice.
A bet is a single pick or a parlay of 2 to 4 picks from different events. Stakes are 1 to 500 coins, you can place up to 50 bets a day, and no bet pays back more than 10,000 coins.
You get the odds shown when you place the bet. If they changed in the meantime, the bet is refused and your slip shows the new odds to review. Once someone bets on a price it no longer changes.
Betting locks Monday at 9:30 AM New York time, when the week's fantasy picks lock. Bets settle after Friday's scores are in, usually on Saturday, from the fantasy league's week totals and SEC EDGAR filings.
Lines end in .5, so over/unders and spreads can't tie. A tie in a head-to-head moneyline, a tie for top scorer or top sector, missing data, or a Form 4 we can't read makes that pick void: a single is refunded, and a parlay is paid on its other picks. A parlay with a losing pick loses.
Coins won are play money like any other coins: no cash value, no prizes.

How the old markets settle

Markets have moved to The Book: no new markets open. Markets that were already open close and settle as described here.
New markets open on Monday mornings and close Friday at 4:00 PM New York time. We settle them on Saturday once the week's data is in.
Head-to-head questions compare two people's fantasy points for the week. A tie makes the market void.
Sector questions compare the average fantasy points of the draftable people in each sector. A tie for first makes the market void.
Insider-buy questions resolve YES if the person files a Form 4 on SEC EDGAR showing an open-market purchase (transaction code P) between Monday and Friday of that week. If we can't read a filing well enough to tell, the market is void.
Only our own data files are used, and each result links to its source. If the data never arrives, the market is void.
Void markets give back what each player put in. Winning shares pay 1 coin each, rounded down to a whole coin.

Game rules for the fantasy league, accounts and nicknames are on the Rules page.